scratchoddstexas is not affiliated with the Texas Lottery or TDLR. Simulations are informational and may not reflect actual retailer or machine inventory.

Methodology

How scratchoddstexas models odds

We combine public prize lists and public sales data to estimate what each game may return on average. Simple mode focuses on dollars back, the average shortfall or amount above cost, and how often a ticket may finish ahead. These are estimates, not promises and not store-level odds.

Step 2

Normalize remaining prize counts

Remaining prize counts are calculated as original printed prizes minus claimed prizes, never below zero.

Step 3

Model ticket depletion

We estimate how many tickets may be left by comparing public sales with tickets printed.

Worked examples

Three numbers that answer different questions

Every number in these examples is synthetic. They explain the arithmetic; they do not describe a current Texas game or promise a result.

Synthetic example 1

Any prize is not the same as profit

Suppose 10 tickets cost $5 each. Three return exactly $5, one returns $10, and six return $0. Any-prize frequency is 4 of 10, or 1 in 2.5. Only 1 of 10 finishes ahead, or 1 in 10. Total returned is $25 on $50 spent, so the group still has a $25 loss.

Synthetic example 2

Unclaimed is not the same as unsold

Suppose one million tickets were printed and sales suggest 900,000 were sold. That leaves an estimated 100,000 unsold tickets. If 30,000 prize instances remain unclaimed, 30,000 ÷ 100,000 is 0.30 prize instances per estimated unsold ticket, not 30% winning-ticket odds. Claims can lag, purchased tickets can remain unscratched, and one ticket can contain multiple prize instances.

Synthetic example 3

Median, mean, and range tell different stories

Imagine 250 runs: 100 end at −$20, 75 at −$5, 50 at $0, and 25 at +$30. The lower-middle actual run is −$5, while the mean is −$6.50. The distribution shows the 40% severe-loss cluster and the 10% positive tail that neither one-number summary reveals.

Simple mode

Reading the Modeled Return Receipt

The receipt separates the long-run average from the chance of a profitable ticket, so one number never has to stand in for a game's overall quality.

Average return

Modeled dollars back

The estimated average prize value returned per ticket over many modeled tickets. For example, $7.80 back on a $10 ticket is a long-run average, not a prediction for the next ticket.

Compared with cost

Shortfall or above cost

We compare the modeled average back with the ticket price. Less than the price is an average shortfall; more is an average amount above cost; the same amount is modeled break-even.

Profit chance

Finish ahead

The modeled frequency of a ticket paying strictly more than its price. A payout equal to the ticket price is break-even, not finish-ahead. Official any-prize odds are shown separately.
Methodology | scratchoddstexas